MVN: Most Valuable Network

Could the Pittsburgh Pirates Give Boras Client Stephen Strasburg $100 Million?

Baseball fans: Stop considering the Pittsburgh Pirates to be a backwards-thinking group. When Frank Coonelly and Neal Hunington were brought on to replace Kevin McClatchy and Dave Littlefield, the organization was fundamentally changed.

The move that doomed Littlefield was his selection of left-handed reliever Daniel Moskos over catcher Matt Wieters in 2007's Rule 4 draft. Littlefield claimed that Wieters' bonus demands had nothing to do with the Pirates' decision to pass on him; rather, the GM thought Moskos was an elite pitcher who could move quickly through the team's minor league system. Wieters is now set to debut for the Baltimore Orioles as the most heralded prospect in recent history. Moskos has not yet succeeded in Single-A.

A new regime

Huntington's coming out party was held one year later, eight months after his arrival in Pittsburgh. With the second overall pick in the 2008 draft, the Pirates chose Pedro Alvarez, the Dominican third baseman from Vanderbilt University with a big bat and an even bigger asking price. After a drawn-out negotiations process, Coonelly, Huntington, Alvarez and agent Scott Boras agreed on a four-year, $6.4 million deal.

In 2008 the Pirates exceeded the previous record for draft expenditures, paying over-slot bonuses to other high-ceiling players like high schoolers Robbie Grossman and Quinton Miller. "The bottom line is that we have to acquire talent," Huntington said in an interview with The Hardball Times' Mike Lee leading up to the draft.

Huntington went to the ends of the earth to make good on that goal, later signing the first Indian-born baseball prospects, as well as the first South African, Gift Ngoepe.

He isn't afraid to make the unpopular decision, either, as evidenced by moves at the trade deadline that sent fan favorites Jason Bay, Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte to Boston and New York in return for a bevy of prospects. The primary objective is acquiring elite baseball players and controlling them for as long as possible.

Huntington is a progressive general manager.  With that in mind, I believe he is the ideal candidate to give Boras and his latest bonus baby, San Diego State starting pitcher Stephen Strasburg, a system-shattering contract.

Boras vs. slotting

An aside in a blog entry by Peter Gammons at ESPN Insider set the stage for the agent's next nefarious tactic:

[S]ome club officials think that if Washington takes Strasburg with the first overall pick [in the 2009 draft], Boras will ask for Daisuke Matsuzaka money (six years, approximately $50 million) or take him to Japan for a year, a threat that may scare [Nationals president] Stan Kasten into selecting a lesser prospect.

Dave Shenin of Nationals Journal at The Washington Post notes that Mark Prior holds the record for the biggest contract ever awarded a top pick, $10.5 million in 2001.

At Minor League Notebook, Doug Gray asks if Strasburg is worth $50 million. Gray's conclusion seems to be that Strasburg doesn't lack the talent necessary to live up to a monumental deal, but that the contract would "undermine the entire draft and arbitration process" in such a way that the slotting system would be destroyed.

Undoubtedly, that is Boras' goal. He despises rules that limit his clients' earning power; for example, consider his comments to the Boston Herald's Michael Silverman with regard to the arbitration process:

"All teams are instructed to take their premium players and do their best to remove them from the arbitration market. It's good business for them to receive premium talent for a grossly devalued cost."

Boras wants to set a precedent with Strasburg's first contract, after which he'll sell the pitcher's services to the highest bidder in free agency. There's no such thing as a hometown discount.

Out-Boras the Boras

As with Huntington's favorite stomping grounds -- international free agency and the Rule 5 draft -- the amateur draft is an area of the game where young talent can be acquired with no cost outside of money and time.  Talent can be bought.  The top evaluators and aggressive spenders will stock their farms with the best players.

Why not push the limits there, then?

What if Huntington made it known that not only would he pay the ransom, but that he would double it?  What if the Pirates offered Stephen Strasburg a 12-year, $100 million contract?

Would the Nationals, Seattle Mariners and San Diego Padres avoid drafting Strasburg, bypassing the risky negotiations in order to sign Grant Green, Dustin Ackley and Alex White to more reasonable contracts?  If Boras holds his line, they might.  Despite the compensation system in place, a team loses leverage in the second year of holding the same pick.

Would Boras be able to say no to a $100 million contract for a prospect?  I don't think so.  He'd be vilified, and Strasburg would have to fire him on the spot.  The Pirates would set the kid up for life before he ever threw a pitch as a professional. 

Why it makes sense

For the Pirates to offer a 12-year contract to Strasburg, they must have confidence in two truths:

• Strasburg is a once-in-a-generation talent.
• He has the mental fortitude to pitch for his legacy, not for the dollars he already earned.

If they believe that Strasburg today is a better pitcher than A.J. Burnett, and if they believe that the weight of a record-breaking contract won't crush him, then this move is a no-brainer.

Consider that the injury-plagued Burnett in 10 major league seasons has been worth $87 million -- $25.5 million in 2008 alone. Burnett also added mileage to his arm in the minors that Strasburg would presumably avoid in jumping directly to the big leagues.

If Strasburg truly is better than Burnett right now, then in theory it would only take four seasons for the contract to pay for itself.  By 2013, the Pirates could be positioned well for a World Series run.  They'd have until 2021 to build a dynasty around their ace.

But what if Strasburg got hurt?  After all, there's no such thing as a pitching prospect.  Consider that in just 106 starts (the equivalent of 3.5 seasons) Mark Prior was worth $46.2 million.  At the first sign of trouble, Strasburg would be shut down.  If he goes under the knife, so be it.  A deal like this one assumes that the player won't be healthy 100 percent of the time. 

Pitching 10, $10 million seasons would mean Strasburg balanced the value side of the equation.  As an example, FanGraphs values Prior's 2005 season -- 27 starts, 166.2 IP, 11 W, 7 L, 3.67 ERA, 188 K -- at 3.0 wins, $10.4 million.

And, to borrow a line from Project Prospect's Lincoln Hamilton: "Maybe Strasburg really is a freak who can handle extra stress," and he'll miraculously pitch at ace levels for 12 straight years.  His floor is unbelievably high; his ceiling undefined.

That's not to mention the effect Strasburg would have on Pittsburgh and Pirates baseball.  The team won't play on national television this year.  Attendance is dwindling, and the Pirates are solidly ranked third behind the Steelers and Penguins in terms of fan interest.  Strasburg would be the Pirates' Sidney Crosby, the new face of the franchise charged with making the team relevant again.

We've written here that in his second year the helm, Huntington will look to upgrade his rotation depth.  The Pirates need more pitching in the system.  Wouldn't it be something if Bob Nutting opens his checkbook and pays for Stephen Strasburg, not White or Aaron Crow when the Pirates make their pick this June?

Four Spring Training Roster Crunches that Could Benefit the Pirates

With Opening Day less than three weeks away, big league rosters are beginning to take shape. Several teams have more talented players than they do open jobs. Those surpluses force transactions, and talent-poor teams like the Pirates can shop for bargains.

There are four such situations that Neal Huntington would be wise to explore before 25-man rosters need to be set.

Jeff Niemann victim of Rays' rotation depth

Jeff Niemann is battling with Jason Hammel and David Price for the final spot in Tampa Bay's starting rotation. Niemann, the fourth overall pick in the 2004 amateur draft, is out of options. If he doesn't stick on Tampa Bay's 25-man roster, he'll be exposed to waivers.

Niemann's name popped up in trade rumors at last July's deadline when Tampa was reported to have interest in Jason Bay. It's easy to see why Huntington would come calling: Niemann is nearly 7 feet and 280 pounds of right-handed power, fitting squarely within the team's mold for the ideal pitcher.

Still, making a trade with Tampa seems difficult. What do you get the team that has everything? I'd offer up impending free agent John Grabow, a more natural fit for the Rays' 'pen than Niemann. Grabow would complement incumbent southpaws J.P. Howell and Brian Shouse -- he's a talented left-handed reliever also capable of getting righties out. Grabow would deepen the Rays' staff, allowing Joe Maddon to play matchups against the Yankees and Red Sox.

With Price primed to tear up the American League, and with Wade Davis, Jeremy Hellickson et al. arriving sooner rather than later, the Rays can afford to deal an arm with some upside for another piece of a championship contender.

In Pittsburgh Niemann would take the rotation spot that Jeff Karstens or Virgil Vasquez is currently slated to fill.

A's signing of Giambi blocks Daric Barton

At the behest of Athletics owner Lew Wolff, Billy Beane paused his rebuilding efforts and set his team on a win-now course. He traded for Matt Holliday to beef up the middle of his order, and he signed favorite son Jason Giambi to play first base.

The problem is that Jason Giambi isn't much of a first baseman. He's a power hitter who is occasionally forced to wear a glove. His bat would stay in Oakland's lineup more consistently if the A's weren't stuck tiring him out in the field.

Perhaps that's why Nick Johnson's name was linked to the A's during the hot stove season. Johnson is a slick-fielding first baseman with keen plate discipline and enough pop to keep pitchers honest. Dave Shenin speculated that the Nationals' asking price for Johnson might have been blocked prospect Daric Barton.

It just so happens the Pirates have a first baseman of their own who hits for power and plays solid defense. What if the Pirates shipped Adam LaRoche to the A's to further solidify their push for the AL West title? LaRoche would slot in at first base, with Giambi serving as DH and Jack Cust playing in the outfield.

LaRoche and a second-tier prospect would seem a fair price to pay for the 23-year-old Barton, who hasn't done much in the show despite an impressive track record in the minors. He and Steve Pearce could form an effective platoon for the next several seasons.

Wily Mo Pena buried in talented Nationals outfield

Jim Bowden didn't earn much praise for his work in rebuilding the Nationals, but he was able to successfully stockpile an above-average group of outfielders. He added Josh Willingham and Adam Dunn to a depth chart that includes Lastings Milledge, Elijah Dukes, Austin Kearns, Willie Harris and Wily Mo Pena.

Pena would seem to be the most attractive (attainable) trade bait, as he just turned 27 and possesses prodigious power from the right side of the plate. The Nationals need help badly in their rotation, and so it's not a stretch to believe they could deal from a strength to address a weakness.

Jeff Karstens isn't a world beater, but he would provide Washington with a steady presence on the mound every fifth day. Pena -- owed $2m million in 2009 -- could serve the role currently set aside for grizzled veteran Craig Monroe. Despite a strong spring, Monroe is likely at the end of the line. The Pirates could hope to coax Pena's potential out into PNC Park's right field.

Angels still unwilling to give Brandon Wood playing time

John Sickels had this to say about Brandon Wood in his 2008 prospect book:

"A lot of people are getting worried about Wood. Some points to consider: he is still very young, just 23 entering the '08 season and with full Double-A and Triple-A campaigns under his belt. His power remains excellent. He is a very good defensive shortstop, and turned out to be a very good defensive third baseman as well. ... The Angels didn't do him any favors by calling him up to sit him on the bench at mid-season. ... The Angels just need to let him play."

Wood went on to hit .296/.375/.595 in his second season with the Triple-A Salt Lake Bees, improving his HR/AB and K/BB rates in the process. Nevertheless, he was used sparingly by the Angels in 2008, and he remains buried behind Chone Figgins, Erick Aybar and Maicer Izturis.

The Pirates could make a play for Wood, offering the Angels their third baseman of the future (Neil Walker) and No. 3 starter (Brad Lincoln), both of whom could spend 2009 being groomed in the minors -- no need to worry about delayed development or wounded pride. Wood would fill the Pirates' need for an honest-to-goodness shortstop after Jack Wilson moves on.

A dream team

In this purely hypothetical, longshot scenario, the Pirates would end up with a roster like this:

1. McCutchen, CF
2. Sanchez, 2B
3. McLouth, LF
4. Doumit, C
5. Wood, SS
6. LaRoche, 3B
7. Barton/Pearce, 1B
8. Moss/Pena, RF

1. Maholm, LHP
2. Snell, RHP
3. Duke, LHP
4. Niemann, RHP
5. Ohlendorf, RHP

They'd lose two impending free agents, two high-risk, high-reward prospects, a fringe starting pitcher and another mid-level minor leaguer. In return, they'd give players with plenty of potential their first extended MLB opportunities, which is exactly what the team should be doing as it builds toward 2010 and beyond.

Danny Moskos: Jarek Cunningham Could Miss Serious Time Due to Knee Injury

Two months ago, we posted our breakdown of the Pirates' future at shortstop. In 2009, expect Jack Wilson, Ramon Vazquez and Brian Bixler or Luis Cruz to earn playing time at the position. In the longer term, players like Brian Friday, Jordy Mercer, Chase D'Arnaud and Jarek Cunningham seem to have the best chance of starting.

Friday was the third round pick in Dave Littlefield's last draft. He profiles similarly to Brian Bixler, and after hitting just .287/.365/.387 in 85 games at Lynchburg in 2008, his prospect star isn't shining terribly bright.

Huntington beefed up the Pirates' middle infield depth in the 2008 draft, selecting Mercer in the third round, D'Arnaud in the fourth and Benji Gonzalez in the seventh. Six of the Pirates' first nine picks were spent on players for the left side of the infield, addressing a clear need.

One of Huntington's highest upside picks came in the 18th round when he chose Cunningham out of Mount Spokane High School in Washington. Baseball America rates Cunningham as the Pirates' 13th best prospect -- the No. 1 shortstop in the system -- and considers his pro debut to be tops in our 2008 class. He was also the team's best-late round pick:

Cunningham dropped off many draft boards because of a spring knee injury but returned for two state playoff games, and the Pirates stayed on him, signing him away from Arizona State.

Danny Moskos, Pirates beat writer -- er, pitching prospect -- relayed the bad news on his official blog today that Cunningham "tweaked his knee" in spring training and that "[he] might have to miss some serious time." Moskos went on to say that "it's very unfortunate for [Cunningham] and the organization if he has to miss an extended period of time. He's a really good ball player."

In Baseball America's profile of Cunningham, it's noted that the Pirates had the prospect play some third base last year to lessen the strain on his knee ("which held up fine"). He has the arm strength to play third if necessary, but "has a chance to be a plus defender at shortstop."

Not anymore.

Moskos is right; this is a blow to the Pirates' future. Another knee injury probably forces Cunningham to the hot corner permanently. To be an above average contributor at third, his bat will need to be significantly bigger than it would've at short. And of course, we're already faced with a glut of third basemen (Pedro Alvarez, Neil Walker and Andy LaRoche).

We'll learn more as the Pirates' beat writers pick up on the story. An ACL injury would be the worst case scenario, and could mean a missed 2009 season. A sprain would be favorable, but still could force Huntington to be more protective going forward.

Cunningham was my pick as Pirates shortstop of the future. Now, Mercer and D'Arnaud will get a longer look at the position -- there's one less way to split at-bats, at least -- and Huntington might be back to scouring the trade market for another lottery ticket.

Comparing the Pirates and Cardinals in '09

Continuing the series in which we look position-by-position at the 2009 Pittsburgh Pirates and how they stack up with the rest of the competition in the NL Central. Up next... the St. Louis Cardinals.

Cardinals in 2008:  86-76, 4th in the NL Central. The Cardinals always seem to piece together a team that is a playoff contender, despite housing some not-so-well-known names, but they haven't jeopardized too much of their future in doing so. Plus, they'll always possess one of the game's best bats in first baseman Albert Pujols.

CATCHER -- Yadier Molina - Molina has progressed himself into a nice little .300 hitter after posting a .216 clip during the '06 WS series. He's better known for his defense and the way he can handle a staff, which he is good at. However, I'd be willing to take the threat of Doumit's bat over that. Advantage... Pirates.

Pirates Battle for Outfield, Fifth Starter and Bullpen Spots in Spring Training

The Pirates played their first spring training game of 2009 yesterday, defeating the World Champion Phillies 8-2. Over the course of the next six weeks, their performance in the Grapefruit League will help determine the winners of a number of battles for roster spots.

Starting left fielder

Management seems poised to enter the season with Nyjer Morgan starting in left field. A year ago, he was competing against Nate McLouth for the center field job. After losing out, Morgan entered the 2008 season as a bench player. He ultimately was demoted to Indianapolis to receive regular playing time before earning a call-up on June 20. Morgan hit .326/.367/.419 in 140 plate appearances from that point on. Intangible: His personality makes him a marketable (and likable) presence.

The Pirates signed Eric Hinske in free agency, however, and while it appears as if the veteran will be relegated to backup duty at the infield and outfield corners, he could be better suited than Morgan for the left field job. Both players contributed positive value defensively in 2008, and Hinske's work with the bat (.798 OPS) led him to be worth about one win more than Morgan was.

The team is interested in adding speed to the lineup -- sizable edge to Morgan -- but the value of a stolen base is questionable. Both Morgan and Hinske will likely see ample playing time this season, but I'd let the hotter of the two coming out of Bradenton have the first crack at starting.

By July, Andrew McCutchen (or McLouth) should be in left.

Fifth outfielder

Assuming that the loser of Morgan and Hinske will serve as the Pirates' fourth outfielder, there are three candidates for the fifth outfield spot: Steve Pearce, Craig Monroe and Jeff Salazar.

Pearce and Monroe should have the upper hand, as the Pirates' lineup features a disproportionate number of left-handed bats. A right-handed power stroke in this spot would give John Russell more flexibility, especially as he's making out his lineup card versus southpaws.

Huntington is hesitant to have Pearce riding the pine, and so the soon to be 26-year-old could end up starting regularly at Indianapolis despite being the most talented player in this threesome.

In that case, the merits of Monroe and Salazar would need to be weighed. Monroe is older and probably doesn't have much left in the tank. Salazar has more upside -- he put up a .364/.439/.606 slash line in limited time at Triple-A last season -- but he would make the Pirates' fifth left-handed outfielder.

I give the edge to Monroe, but fully expect the job to be taken from him by midseason.

Backup infielder

Ramon Vazquez was signed to a two-year deal to play second, third and shortstop. He is another left-handed bat, but Vazquez has experience as a starter and could be a steady addition to the lineup should Jack Wilson or Freddy Sanchez be traded or suffer an injury.

Brian Bixler and Luis Cruz served middle infield roles last year. Neither is impressive, but they have an edge in that they're already taking up spots on the 40-man roster. Both hit from the right side of the plate.

Non-roster invitees to camp are Shelby Ford (switch-hitter), Pedro Lopez (RHB), Anderson Machado (switch) and Andy Phillips (RHB). Ford will almost certainly start at second base for Indianapolis. Lopez, 24, has played 478 games at shortstop in the minors (with 176 games at second). Machado, 28, has played mostly at SS in the minors, but also has experience at 3B, 2B and LF. Phillips, 31, has the most big league experience, but doesn't have the same middle infield versatility.

Count on Huntington giving the last infield spot to the player with the most consistent glove after suffering through Luis Rivas' poor defense last season.

Backup catcher

Huntington traded for Jason Jaramillo and Robinzon Diaz, and one of the two will earn the honor of serving as Ryan Doumit's caddy. (He'll also serve as the starter for the two-week stretch in which Doumit inevitably lands on the disabled list.)

Jaramillo's advantage is having played under Russell in the Phillies' organization. Diaz's advantage is having been with the Pirates in September, and thus having more experience with the pitching staff.

Huntington proposed a scenario in which Jaramillo and Diaz could be shuttled back and forth between Indianapolis and Pittsburgh in order to ensure that both are allowed the opportunity to play regularly.

Flip a coin.

Fifth starter

The starting rotation is allegedly an open competition, but four names should be considered virtual locks: Paul Maholm, Ian Snell, Zach Duke and Tom Gorzelanny.

The first trio is earning significant compensation this season; Maholm and Snell had arb years bought out by this management team, and Duke settled on a $2.2 million contract for 2009, avoiding arbitration.

Gorzelanny pitched wretchedly in 2008, but he probably wasn't healthy (thanks, Jim Tracy and Dave Littlefield). He's reportedly in better shape this season, and is only two seasons removed from being named the organization's minor league pitcher of the year. If healthy, he starts in Pittsburgh.

That leaves one spot for Jimmy Barthmaier, Jeff Karstens, Daniel McCutchen, Ross Ohlendorf and Virgil Vasquez to fight over. Karstens seems like the best bet to step in and perform solidly based on experience and track record. Barthmaier, McCutchen and Ohlendorf have the most upside potential, though McCutchen would need to be added to the 40-man roster. Vasquez is the darkhorse candidate.

Bullpen

Assume Phil Dumatrait and Rule 5 pick Donnie Veal, though starters in the past, are only candidates for long relief (Dumatrait is recovering from surgery, and Veal lacks experience). Karstens could also be considered for the bullpen if he isn't in the rotation. The other arms mentioned previously would likely be sent to Triple-A to start regularly to keep their ceilings as high as possible.

Non-roster invitees Denny Bautista, Chris Bootcheck and Jason Davis join Jesse Chavez, Evan Meek and Romulo Sanchez in a competition for one definite opening. Matt Capps, John Grabow, Tyler Yates, Sean Burnett and Craig Hansen are probable locks for the 'pen.

Early projected 25-man roster

C Ryan Doumit (S), Jason Jaramillo (S)
1B Adam LaRoche (L)
2B Freddy Sanchez (R)
3B Andy LaRoche (R), Ramon Vazquez (L)
SS Jack Wilson (R), Pedro Lopez (R)
LF Nyjer Morgan (L), Eric Hinske (L)
CF Nate McLouth (L)
RF Brandon Moss (L), Craig Monroe (R)

SP Paul Maholm (L)
SP Ian Snell (R)
SP Zach Duke (L)
SP Tom Gorzelanny (L)
SP Jeff Karstens (R)

CL Matt Capps (R)
SU John Grabow (L), Tyler Yates (R)
MR Craig Hansen (R), Sean Burnett (L), Evan Meek (R)
LR Phil Dumatrait (L)

Three Pirates in BA's Top 100 Prospects

We detailed just about all of the prospects, legit or fringe, in the Pirates' system during our organizational depth chart series.

It comes as no surprise to us, or anyone Pirates follower really, that three of the Pirates' prospects (Pedro Alvarez, Andrew McCutchen and Jose Tabata) showed up on Baseball America's Top 100 prospects list, which was released by the publication today.

Each ranking provided one number of note, a one-liner to complement that number, the player's 2009 opening day age and his respective estimated time of arrival in Pittsburgh.

Let's take a look at what they thought about our trio of future stars:

12. Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Pirates
9/24: Date he signed with the Pirates -- more than a month after the Aug. 15 deadline -- after the union's grievance on his behalf.
Opening Day Age: 22
ETA: 2009

33. Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pirates
1: International League center fielders with a higher OPS than McCutchen's .770 (Brett Gardner, .836).
Opening Day Age: 22
ETA: 2009

75. Jose Tabata, OF, Pirates
.348: Average at Double-A Altoona after being traded from the Yankees in July, or 100 points higher than his average at Double-A Trenton.
Opening Day Age: 20
ETA: 2010

Again, the fact that these three Pirates are on the list are not a surprise at all. Alvarez, McCutchen and Tabata will serve as the cornerstone of Che's rebuilding process.

If you're looking for a surprise, though, look no further than the ETA of third baseman and 2008 first-rounder Pedro Alvarez -- 2009. My guess is that this would be no more than a late-season showing if he performs well at the minor league level. But still, it's noteworthy none the less.

Regardless, we're looking at our three best guys taking to the PNC Park field by at least 2010. And it'll be interesting to see how the rest of the lineup/roster shapes up around these guys.

Now only if Che can file in some top-shelf pitchers behind them.